Prediction.Markets

Will Kamala Harris enter the 2028 Democratic presidential primary?

Market consensus9%
+0.0pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 28% +19.4pp
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Resolves in 1.8y · Total volume $15.4k · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

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GPT-5
OpenAI
45%+36.4pp

Both 2024 outcomes yield an open 2028 Dem field; VPs almost always run.

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Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
11%+2.4pp

Base rate for losing nominees re-running is low; CA gov path more likely. Holding near market with slight premium.

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Grok 4
xAI
28%+19.4pp

Name ID, donor base, and ex-nominee entry rates still dominate recency bias from 2024.

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Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Polymarket
8.6%91.5%$15.4k$309.7kopen

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politics·resolves in 1.8y
+0.0pp

Will Kamala Harris enter the 2028 Democratic presidential primary?

Market9%
AI Oracle28%vs market +19.4pp
$15.4k 24h vol
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<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/harris-2028-primary/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="harris-2028-primary" variant="card" />
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →