Prediction.Markets

Will Trump's birthright citizenship order come into effect?

Market consensus9%
+0.4pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 7% -2.6pp
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Resolves in 2mo · Total volume $20.8k · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
GPT-5
OpenAI
4%-5.3pp

No EO/leak and only ~62 days left; signature before Aug 1 is unlikely.

track record →
Grok 4
xAI
12%+2.7pp

Immediate nationwide injunctions prevent any implementation window.

track record →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
4%-5.3pp

EO remains enjoined; ~8 weeks left with no SCOTUS clearance makes implementation before Aug 1 very unlikely.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
8.0%92.0%$20.8k$0open

Movement

No significant movements yet.

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politics·resolves in 2mo
+0.4pp

Will Trump's birthright citizenship order come into effect?

Market9%
AI Oracle7%
$20.8k 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kx14amendcase-26/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="kx14amendcase-26" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If Trump's Executive Order ending birthright citizenship comes into effect for any period after Issuance and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →