Prediction.Markets

Will James Comey be arrested before Jan 2027?

Market consensus99%
+7.4pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 40% -59.8pp
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Resolves in 7mo · Total volume $267.8k · 0 participants · 2 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
GPT-5
OpenAI
4%-95.5pp

No active case; SOL lapsed; arrest of ex-FBI chief before Jan '27 is implausible.

track record →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
97%-2.5pp

Kalshi at 100% with $268K volume strongly suggests Comey arrest already occurred or is locked in.

track record →
Grok 4
xAI
18%-81.5pp

No active indictment or probe visible; 7-month window still too short for ex-FBI director arrest.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Polymarket
23.3%76.7%$120$3.3kopen
Kalshi
99.5%0.5%$267.7k$0open

Movement

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politics·resolves in 7mo
+7.4pp

Will James Comey be arrested before Jan 2027?

Market99%
AI Oracle40%vs market -59.8pp
$267.8k 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxarrest-27jan/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="kxarrest-27jan" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If James Comey is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →