Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
Grok 4
xAI
18%-9.5pp
GOP Senate map still blocks easy D-Senate flip, keeping split control plausible.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
3%-24.5pp
Resolution requires R-House + D-Senate split; 2026 Senate map favors R, making D-Senate unlikely.
GPT-5
OpenAI
3%-24.5pp
Midterms co-move; R House + D Senate needs opposite swings—low odds.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 2.2% | 97.8% | $5.5k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<PMEmbed slug="kxbalancepowercombo-27feb" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If ALL of the following occur on Feb 1, 2027: House Control: Republican, Senate Control: Democratic, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →