Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
GPT-5
OpenAI
1%-0.7pp
Modern WCs aren’t boycotted; 17 days left; no market signal—pure tail.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
2%+0.3pp
No NATO state has signaled a WC boycott; qualified European teams are actively preparing to play. Base rate near zero.
Grok 4
xAI
3%+1.3pp
Zero boycott signals from NATO states this close to kickoff; alliances too tight for sports snub.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 1.7% | 98.3% | $3.5k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxboycottwc-26/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>react
<PMEmbed slug="kxboycottwc-26" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If any NATO member state boycotts the 2026 USA World Cup before Jun 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →