Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
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Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 2.1% | 97.9% | $430.9k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxcagovprimary1st-26jun02-1st/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>react
<PMEmbed slug="kxcagovprimary1st-26jun02-1st" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If Steve Hilton finishes in 1st place in the 2026 California Governor primary election, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 0 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →