Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
GPT-5
OpenAI
27%+23.6pp
Calendar + definition: few weeks left, no Senate deal; stablecoin chatter isn't market-structure law by Aug 1.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
33%+29.6pp
7 days to deadline; market at 39% reflects real catalyst but Senate passage + signature in window remains tight.
Grok 4
xAI
25%+21.6pp
No draft text, summer calendar, and 9-week timeline make passage before Aug 1 improbable.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 38.5% | 61.5% | $1.5k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<PMEmbed slug="kxcryptostructure-26jan" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →