Prediction.Markets

Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-06-01T14:00:00.000Z?

Market consensus21%
+3.0pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 7% -13.8pp
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Resolves today · Total volume $2.8k · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
3%-17.5pp

Current date is past resolution deadline; no evidence Díaz-Canel left office before June 1, 2026.

track record →
Grok 4
xAI
8%-12.5pp

Past resolution date with zero departure signals; regime shows continuity.

track record →
GPT-5
OpenAI
9%-11.5pp

No credible news, ~6 days left; Cuban transitions are choreographed, not sudden. 21% looks rich.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
20.5%79.5%$2.8k$0open

Movement

No significant movements yet.

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politics·resolves today
+3.0pp

Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-06-01T14:00:00.000Z?

Market21%
AI Oracle7%vs market -13.8pp
$2.8k 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxdiazout-mdc/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="kxdiazout-mdc" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office before June 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →