Prediction.Markets

Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Aug 1, 2026?

Market consensus4%
-1.0pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 4% +0.2pp
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Resolves in 2mo · Total volume $4.4k · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
GPT-5
OpenAI
3%-0.5pp

No 60-vote Senate path or viable vehicle before Aug 1; WH opposes.

track record →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
3%-0.5pp

SAVE Act remains filibustered in Senate; no path to enactment in ~8 weeks before Aug 1 deadline.

track record →
Grok 4
xAI
5%+1.5pp

Two-month window; bill not on any fast track and Congress schedule blocks it.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
3.5%96.5%$4.4k$0open

Movement

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politics·resolves in 2mo
-1.0pp

Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Aug 1, 2026?

Market4%
AI Oracle4%
$4.4k 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxelectionbill/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="kxelectionbill" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections has become law after Issuance and before after Issuance and Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →