Prediction.Markets

Will the President sign more than 0 Executive Orders between May 3, 2026 and May 9, 2026?

Market consensus1%
-1.0pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 48% +47.5pp
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Resolves today · Total volume $8.3k · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
95%+94.5pp

Window is past; Trump signed multiple EOs in early May 2026. Market at 1% appears to be a thin-volume resolver quirk.

track record →
GPT-5
OpenAI
1%+0.5pp

I see zero EOs signed May 3–9 on WH.gov/FR; signature date rules, so later postings can't create in-window EOs.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
0.5%99.5%$8.3k$0open

Movement

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politics·resolves today
-1.0pp

Will the President sign more than 0 Executive Orders between May 3, 2026 and May 9, 2026?

Market1%
AI Oracle48%vs market +47.5pp
$8.3k 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxeoweek-26may09/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="kxeoweek-26may09" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If the President signs above 0 executive orders during May 3, 2026 to May 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 2 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →