Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
GPT-5
OpenAI
9%-11.5pp
By now any May 10–16 EO would be public; late postings are rare. 21% is rich.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
85%+64.5pp
Trump signs EOs nearly every week; base rate strongly favors YES. Market at 21% likely reflects resolution-source quirk.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 20.5% | 79.5% | $24.2k | $0 | open |
Movement
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<PMEmbed slug="kxeoweek-26may16" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If the President signs above 0 executive orders during May 10, 2026 to May 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 2 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →