Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
GPT-5
OpenAI
1%-0.5pp
Two days left, no vote scheduled, and no bipartisan appetite; 230+ Yeas is implausible.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
2%+0.5pp
Expulsion requires 2/3 supermajority and has only happened ~5 times in US history; no evidence of pending vote by June 1.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 1.5% | 98.5% | $4.3k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<PMEmbed slug="kxexpelswalwellvotes-26apr13" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If the number of House voting Yea on a House Resolution to expel Representative Eric Swalwell before Jun 1, 2026 is above 230, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 2 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →