Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
5%-85.5pp
Resolution criteria require confirmation before May 15, 2026 — that date has passed without a confirmed nominee.
Grok 4
xAI
15%-75.5pp
No Senate confirmation possible in 6 days; timeline is procedural reality.
GPT-5
OpenAI
65%-25.5pp
R Senate + WH alignment and June FOMC incentive make a May floor vote, and thus by Jun 1 confirmation, more likely than not.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 90.5% | 9.4% | $5.9k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<PMEmbed slug="kxfedchairconfirmed" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If Trump’s first officially announced pick for Chairman of the Federal Reserve is the first person confirmed as Chairman of the Federal Reserve before May 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →