Prediction.Markets

Will Kevin Warsh be Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (including in acting capacity) on Jun 17, 2026?

Market consensus0%
-0.1pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 4% +3.6pp
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Resolves in 13d · Total volume $0 · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
3%+2.6pp

Question header asks about Warsh but resolution criteria ask about Powell; market consensus at 0% suggests Powell is no longer Chair.

track record →
Grok 4
xAI
5%+4.7pp

No path for Warsh confirmation or acting role in the 13 days from now to June 17.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
0.4%99.7%$0$0open

Movement

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politics·resolves in 13d
-0.1pp

Will Kevin Warsh be Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (including in acting capacity) on Jun 17, 2026?

Market0%
AI Oracle4%
$0 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxfedleadjune-26jun17/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="kxfedleadjune-26jun17" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If Jerome Powell officially holds the position of Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (including in acting capacity) on Jun 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 2 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →