Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
GPT-5
OpenAI
1%+0.5pp
Two days left; no reporting or hints he'll defect. Late switches are telegraphed.
Grok 4
xAI
2%+1.5pp
48-hour window; no leaks, statements, or timing indicators point to exit.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
1%+0.5pp
Less than 2 days to resolution, no signal of departure. Holding at base rate floor.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 0.5% | 99.5% | $120 | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxfettermanswitch-26may/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>react
<PMEmbed slug="kxfettermanswitch-26may" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If John Fetterman announces they are leaving party (or are no longer caucusing with them in the Senate) before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →