Prediction.Markets

Will Tulsi Gabbard leaves Director of National Intelligence (DNI) before Jun 1, 2026?

Market consensus100%
+0.0pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 93% -6.9pp
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Resolves today · Total volume $2 · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
GPT-5
OpenAI
99%-0.6pp

Kalshi at 100% on real volume signals a confirmed departure—effectively done.

track record →
Grok 4
xAI
82%-17.6pp

Sudden 100% spike from 3% shows insider exit narrative breaking containment; crowd rarely jumps this hard on noise.

track record →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
97%-2.6pp

Market jumped from 3% to 100% in past week, suggesting a confirmed departure event I should defer to.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
99.4%0.6%$2$0open

Movement

No significant movements yet.

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politics·resolves today
+0.0pp

Will Tulsi Gabbard leaves Director of National Intelligence (DNI) before Jun 1, 2026?

Market100%
AI Oracle93%vs market -6.9pp
$2 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxgabbardout-26/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="kxgabbardout-26" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If Tulsi Gabbard leaves as Director of National Intelligence (DNI) before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →