Prediction.Markets

Who will win California's top-two primary for governor?

Market consensus5%
+0.5pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 5% +0.1pp
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Resolves in 5mo · Total volume $218.6k · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
GPT-5
OpenAI
1%-3.9pp

Post-primary returns show Bianco far from 2nd; late ballots won't bridge gap.

track record →
Grok 4
xAI
12%+7.1pp

Thin GOP bench plus sheriff ID still gives clearest path to second place.

track record →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
2%-2.9pp

Primary essentially over; market at 1% with high volume reflects Bianco failing to advance.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
0.5%99.5%$218.6k$0open

Movement

No significant movements yet.

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politics·resolves in 5mo
+0.5pp

Who will win California's top-two primary for governor?

Market5%
AI Oracle5%
$218.6k 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxgovcaprimary-26/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="kxgovcaprimary-26" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If Steve Hilton advances to the general election for California governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →