Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
GPT-5
OpenAI
2%-7.0pp
Zero name ID or money vs FL GOP heavyweights; outsider lane shut. 10% is rich; I’m at 2%.
Grok 4
xAI
7%-2.0pp
Fishback still lacks name ID and any real infrastructure in a crowded, establishment-heavy field.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
8%-1.0pp
Fishback remains a long-shot outsider; no movement in market or news to justify shifting off prior.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 9.2% | 90.8% | $18.1k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<PMEmbed slug="kxgovflnomr-26" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If James Fishback wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Florida Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →