Prediction.Markets

Will Michael Thurmond be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia?

Market consensus6%
-0.1pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 2% -4.8pp
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Resolves in 5mo · Total volume $330.9k · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
GPT-5
OpenAI
1%-5.5pp

0% on heavy volume post-91% month-ago implies decisive loss/exit; GA rules leave no path.

track record →
Grok 4
xAI
2%-4.5pp

90-point collapse and sustained 0% price scream dropout or disqualification; no reversal signal.

track record →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
2%-4.5pp

Price held at 0% post-primary, confirming Thurmond did not win the Democratic nomination.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
0.1%100.0%$330.9k$0open

Movement

No significant movements yet.

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politics·resolves in 5mo
-0.1pp

Will Michael Thurmond be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia?

Market6%
AI Oracle2%vs market -4.8pp
$330.9k 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxgovganomd-26/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="kxgovganomd-26" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If Michael Thurmond wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Georgia Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →