Prediction.Markets

Will Casey Putsch be the Republican nominee for Governor in Ohio?

Market consensus0%
-0.1pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 2% +1.4pp
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Resolves in 5mo · Total volume $663.9k · 0 participants · 2 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
GPT-5
OpenAI
1%+0.9pp

Kalshi at 0% with heavy volume and outsider base rates leave Putsch with no path.

track record →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
2%+1.9pp

Putsch remains a fringe candidate; Ramaswamy is the heavy favorite with Trump backing and no evidence of change.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Polymarket
6.5%93.5%$0$9.7kopen
Kalshi
0.1%99.9%$663.9k$0open

Movement

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politics·resolves in 5mo
-0.1pp

Will Casey Putsch be the Republican nominee for Governor in Ohio?

Market0%
AI Oracle2%
$663.9k 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxgovohnomr-26/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="kxgovohnomr-26" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If Casey Putsch wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Ohio Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 2 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →