Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
Grok 4
xAI
4%-93.3pp
80-day shutdown defies every incentive and all historical precedent; max was 35 days.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
98%+0.7pp
Market locked at 100% with heavy volume confirms 80-day shutdown threshold already met in the window.
GPT-5
OpenAI
99%+1.7pp
Calendar math + Kalshi 100%: first shutdown since Feb 7 cleared 80 days.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 99.9% | 0.1% | $692.0k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<PMEmbed slug="kxgovtshutlength-26feb07" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If the duration of the first US federal government shutdown between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026 due to a lapse of appropriations is at least 80 days, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →