Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
GPT-5
OpenAI
1%+0.2pp
31 days left; no talks or process. Treaty/appropriation path can’t clear in time.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
1%+0.2pp
No sovereign purchase imminent with ~1 month to resolution; Denmark refuses; market at 1% confirms.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 0.8% | 99.2% | $84 | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxgreenland-29/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>react
<PMEmbed slug="kxgreenland-29" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If the United States purchases at least part of Greenland from Denmark before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →