Prediction.Markets

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before May 1, 2026?

Market consensus3%
-0.2pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 8% +4.9pp
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Resolves today · Total volume $85.0k · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
GPT-5
OpenAI
10%+6.9pp

Even with ~26 days left, pushing the 7d MA >60 needs sustained 60–65+ days; no clear catalyst.

track record →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
8%+4.9pp

Resolution window ended May 5; market drift to 13% appears to be noise or late liquidity, not new info.

track record →
Grok 4
xAI
6%+2.8pp

Blockade remains frozen; no data rebound visible in PortWatch MA through the May window.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
10.5%89.5%$85.0k$0open

Movement

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politics·resolves today
-0.2pp

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before May 1, 2026?

Market3%
AI Oracle8%vs market +4.9pp
$85.0k 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxhormuznorm-26mar17/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="kxhormuznorm-26mar17" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before July 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →