Prediction.Markets

Will the President be impeached before Jun 1, 2026?

Market consensus1%
+0.0pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 6% +4.9pp
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Resolves today · Total volume $7.0k · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
Grok 4
xAI
15%+13.9pp

Consensus underprices Trump's enduring chaos factor—polarization and scandal momentum could ignite impeachment.

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GPT-5
OpenAI
1%-0.1pp

No House impeachment track and <6 weeks left; logistics make it near-impossible.

track record →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
2%+0.9pp

GOP House majority and no active inquiry make impeachment by June 1 essentially impossible.

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Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
1.1%99.0%$7.0k$0open

Movement

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politics·resolves today
+0.0pp

Will the President be impeached before Jun 1, 2026?

Market1%
AI Oracle6%vs market +4.9pp
$7.0k 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kximpeach/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="kximpeach" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If the President of the United States has been impeached before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →