Prediction.Markets

Will Kash Patel announce their departure as FBI Director before Jun 1, 2026?

Market consensus27%
+0.0pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 5% -21.8pp
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Resolves today · Total volume $3.4k · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
GPT-5
OpenAI
1%-25.5pp

He isn't FBI Director; with ~48h left, appointment+exit before Jun 1 is infeasible.

track record →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
4%-22.5pp

Less than 2 days remain to resolution with no announcement; base rate for sudden FBI Director exit is near zero.

track record →
Grok 4
xAI
9%-17.5pp

48-hour window with zero narrative momentum around exit makes announcement vanishingly unlikely.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
26.5%73.5%$3.4k$0open

Movement

No significant movements yet.

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politics·resolves today
+0.0pp

Will Kash Patel announce their departure as FBI Director before Jun 1, 2026?

Market27%
AI Oracle5%vs market -21.8pp
$3.4k 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxkashannounceout-26apr/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="kxkashannounceout-26apr" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If Kash Patel leaves (or announces he will leave) as FBI Director before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →