Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
GPT-5
OpenAI
4%-15.5pp
He isn’t FBI Director; appointing him and having him leave by Aug 1 is vanishingly unlikely.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
5%-14.5pp
Only ~7 days to June 1 resolution; no public signal of imminent departure. Market title framing (Aug 1) misleading.
Grok 4
xAI
12%-7.5pp
8 days left; zero credible leaks, pressure, or insider signals of imminent exit.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 37.0% | 63.0% | $4.3k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<PMEmbed slug="kxkashout-26apr" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If Kash Patel leaves as FBI Director before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →