Prediction.Markets

Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-4?

Market consensus72%
+0.0pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 3% -68.8pp
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Resolves in 5mo · Total volume $11.2M · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
GPT-5
OpenAI
1%-70.5pp

KY-4 GOP primary is settled without Massie; replacement path is near-zero.

track record →
Grok 4
xAI
4%-67.5pp

Volume-driven collapse to 0% still signals decisive exit or block; no reversal signal emerged.

track record →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
3%-68.5pp

Market at 0% on $11M volume; KY primary was May 19, 2026 — result is essentially known.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
0.3%99.8%$11.2M$0open

Movement

No significant movements yet.

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politics·resolves in 5mo
+0.0pp

Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-4?

Market72%
AI Oracle3%vs market -68.8pp
$11.2M 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxky4r-26/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="kxky4r-26" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If Thomas Massie wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 KY-04 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →