Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
GPT-5
OpenAI
1%-0.5pp
Month ended with no signal of exactly four; narrow target + informed price keep this near zero.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
2%+0.5pp
May 2026 is over; market settled at 2% confirms trip count was not 4.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 1.5% | 98.5% | $4.0k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<PMEmbed slug="kxlagodays-26may" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If Trump makes exactly 4 trips to Mar-a-Lago in May 2026 as President, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →