Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
GPT-5
OpenAI
12%-17.5pp
It's May 25 with no successor named; I expect Powell to continue, making a pre–Aug 1 exit/announcement unlikely.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
8%-21.5pp
Powell's term as Chair ends May 2026 but Board term runs to Jan 2028; no signal he'll resign Board seat early.
Grok 4
xAI
8%-21.5pp
Powell has zero signals of immediate exit in the six-day window; consensus anchors on longer timeline.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 17.0% | 83.0% | $3.3k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<PMEmbed slug="kxleavepowellgov-26aug01" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If Jerome Powell has either officially announced their intention to leave as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or has actually left as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →