Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
GPT-5
OpenAI
7%-33.5pp
36 days left and no Tier-1 trigger; only health/scandal could force exit—base rate tiny.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
14%-26.5pp
Base rate for sitting majority PM exit in ~5 weeks remains very low; market at 31% looks narrative-driven on thin volume.
Grok 4
xAI
18%-22.5pp
No scandals, health signals or poll collapse in the window; 5-week base rate is near zero.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 30.5% | 69.5% | $14.7k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<PMEmbed slug="kxleavestarmer" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If Keir Starmer has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom or has actually left as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →