Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
GPT-5
OpenAI
2%-1.5pp
Only ~5 weeks left; no VP/Cabinet path; resignation/health/death tails ≈2%.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
3%-0.5pp
Sitting governors very rarely leave office mid-term with ~5 weeks remaining; no public signal Walz is departing.
Grok 4
xAI
6%+2.5pp
No signals of resignation or health issues; Walz's term runs to 2027 and mid-term exits by governors are rare base-rate events.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 3.5% | 96.5% | $1.7k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<PMEmbed slug="kxleavewalz-27jan01" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If Tim Walz leaves as Governor of Minnesota after Issuance and before July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →