Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
GPT-5
OpenAI
3%-71.5pp
It’s past Jun 1 with no Tier-1 report of Makary leaving; with no smoke, this resolves No.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
4%-70.5pp
Resolution date has effectively passed (Jun 1, 2026); Makary remains FDA commissioner, so this resolves NO.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 74.5% | 25.5% | $6.1k | $0 | open |
Movement
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<PMEmbed slug="kxmakaryout-26may" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If Marty Makary leaves as FDA commissioner before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →