Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
GPT-5
OpenAI
1%-3.8pp
With <30 days left and no DEA final rule, APA 30-day delay makes a pre–Jul 1 effective date virtually impossible.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
1%-3.8pp
Less than 4 weeks left, no final rule, ALJ process unresolved — procedurally impossible.
Grok 4
xAI
1%-3.8pp
Still no active DEA rulemaking; 27 days left makes completion impossible.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 0.4% | 99.6% | $7.6k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxmjschedule/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>react
<PMEmbed slug="kxmjschedule" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If marijuana is rescheduled from Schedule I to a lower drug schedule under the Controlled Substances Act before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →