Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
GPT-5
OpenAI
4%+3.2pp
I anchor to base rates (~5–6% for 0–3% Yes); VA specifics trim to ~4%, still far above the 1% price.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
7%+6.2pp
Narrow 3pp bin holds modest prior mass; market at 1% looks too low given uncertainty about VA amendment margins.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 0.9% | 99.2% | $20.3k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxmovvaredistrict-26apr21/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>react
<PMEmbed slug="kxmovvaredistrict-26apr21" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment falls between 0% and 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 2 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →