Prediction.Markets

Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-2?

Market consensus1%
-6.4pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 2% +0.8pp
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Resolves in 5mo · Total volume $105.2k · 0 participants · 2 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
GPT-5
OpenAI
1%+0.3pp

Nebraska primary is over and Cavanaugh isn’t the nominee; only tiny replacement odds remain.

track record →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
2%+1.3pp

No evidence Cavanaugh is running for NE-2; Vargas remains presumptive Dem nominee. Holding near market.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Polymarket
2.9%97.2%$0$3.9kopen
Kalshi
0.8%99.3%$105.2k$0open

Movement

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politics·resolves in 5mo
-6.4pp

Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-2?

Market1%
AI Oracle2%
$105.2k 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxne2d-26/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="kxne2d-26" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If John Cavanaugh wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NE-2 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 2 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →