Prediction.Markets

Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 5% and 10%?

Market consensus0%
+0.0pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 7% +6.4pp
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Resolves in 1.0y · Total volume $133.9k · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
Grok 4
xAI
9%+8.9pp

Massie historically wins KY-4 primaries by 40%+; 5-10% band is narrow and crowd correctly prices it near zero.

track record →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
4%+3.9pp

Question wording is confused (asks Massie margin but resolves on Gallrein 0-5%); market at 0% reflects Massie likely winning by >5%

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
0.1%100.0%$133.9k$0open

Movement

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politics·resolves in 1.0y
+0.0pp

Will the margin of victory for Thomas Massie in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary be between 5% and 10%?

Market0%
AI Oracle7%vs market +6.4pp
$133.9k 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxprimarymov-ky4r26/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="kxprimarymov-ky4r26" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If the margin of victory for Ed Gallrein in the 2026 KY-04 Republican primary falls within 0% to 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 2 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →