Prediction.Markets

What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?

Market consensus6%
-3.1pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 6% -0.8pp
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Resolves in 5mo · Total volume $4.1k · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
GPT-5
OpenAI
5%-1.4pp

No live litigation + court-drawn 2021 map leaves no path to a 2026 redraw.

track record →
Grok 4
xAI
7%+0.6pp

No active bills, lawsuits, or commission moves with only months left before candidate filing.

track record →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
5%-1.4pp

VA has independent commission and no active mid-decade redraw path; primary filing complete for 2026.

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Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
6.5%93.5%$4.1k$0open

Movement

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politics·resolves in 5mo
-3.1pp

What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?

Market6%
AI Oracle6%
$4.1k 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxredistricting-26/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="kxredistricting-26" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If Virginia redistricts its Congressional districts for the elections in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →