Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
Grok 4
xAI
85%+79.3pp
Moore has party backing and funding edge; Hudson lacks momentum to upset.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
90%+84.3pp
Question title says Hudson but resolution criteria specify Barry Moore; market is pricing Moore winning AL GOP Senate nom.
GPT-5
OpenAI
3%-2.8pp
Incumbent edge is huge; Hudson lacks statewide heft; 94%→6% crash flags fresh negatives.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 91.4% | 8.6% | $2.6k | $0 | open |
Movement
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<PMEmbed slug="kxsenatealr-26" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If Barry Moore wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Senate Alabama Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →