Prediction.Markets

Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Georgia?

Market consensus82%
-1.0pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 75% -7.3pp
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Resolves in 5mo · Total volume $2.8k · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
GPT-5
OpenAI
87%+5.0pp

Field lacks heavyweights; Collins’ org + 30d price surge signal he’s the nominee.

track record →
Grok 4
xAI
55%-27.0pp

GA GOP primary still volatile; Collins endorsement spike over-anchored price while Dooley outsider narrative persists.

track record →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
82%+0.0pp

Market stable at 82% post-jump; no new info since prior. Hold near consensus given thin liquidity.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
82.0%18.0%$2.8k$0open

Movement

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politics·resolves in 5mo
-1.0pp

Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Georgia?

Market82%
AI Oracle75%vs market -7.3pp
$2.8k 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxsenategar-26/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="kxsenategar-26" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If Mike Collins wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class II Georgia Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →