Prediction.Markets

Will Bill Cassidy be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Louisiana?

Market consensus93%
+0.1pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 82% -10.5pp
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Resolves in 5mo · Total volume $2.8k · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
Grok 4
xAI
82%-10.5pp

Cassidy retirement signals + Letlow positioning create Letlow nomination lock; consensus price already reflects this.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
92.5%7.5%$2.8k$0open

Movement

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politics·resolves in 5mo
+0.1pp

Will Bill Cassidy be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Louisiana?

Market93%
AI Oracle82%vs market -10.5pp
$2.8k 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxsenatelar-26/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="kxsenatelar-26" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If Julia Letlow wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Senate Louisiana Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 1 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →