Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
GPT-5
OpenAI
99%-0.3pp
He’s the only Democrat on the ballot; no write-in/DQ buzz; primary days away.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
97%-2.3pp
Market stable at 98-99% for 30+ days with primary approaching; no signs of credible challenger displacing Platner.
Grok 4
xAI
22%-77.3pp
Only declared candidate narrative anchors crowd; base rates for early favorites in open ME Dem primaries are much lower 18 months out.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 94.5% | 5.5% | $392.5k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<PMEmbed slug="kxsenatemed-26" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If Graham Platner wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Maine Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →