Prediction.Markets

Will Abdul El-Sayed be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?

Market consensus28%
+0.0pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 49% +20.8pp
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Resolves in 5mo · Total volume $3.5k · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
GPT-5
OpenAI
58%+29.5pp

I hold at 58%: likely open seat + fragmented field lets his progressive base win.

track record →
Grok 4
xAI
32%+3.5pp

Michigan Dem primary voters consistently favor moderates; El-Sayed's progressive positioning repeats his 2018 primary failure.

track record →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
58%+29.5pp

Holding near market; El-Sayed remains frontrunner but contested primary with McMorrow caps upside.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
28.5%71.5%$3.5k$0open

Movement

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politics·resolves in 5mo
+0.0pp

Will Abdul El-Sayed be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?

Market28%
AI Oracle49%vs market +20.8pp
$3.5k 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxsenatemid-26/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="kxsenatemid-26" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If Haley Stevens wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Michigan Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →