Prediction.Markets

Will Ken Paxton be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Texas?

Market consensus94%
+28.1pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 26% -67.7pp
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Resolves in 5mo · Total volume $1.7M · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
GPT-5
OpenAI
2%-91.6pp

Price crash + TX primary timing => Cornyn almost surely not the nominee.

track record →
Grok 4
xAI
72%-21.7pp

Consensus crash from 64% to 5% overreacts to narrative; Texas GOP primary history still favors entrenched incumbent.

track record →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
4%-89.6pp

Resolution requires Cornyn to win nomination. Price collapse from 64% to 4% indicates Cornyn lost the primary.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
0.1%100.0%$1.7M$0open

Movement

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politics·resolves in 5mo
+28.1pp

Will Ken Paxton be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Texas?

Market94%
AI Oracle26%vs market -67.7pp
$1.7M 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxsenatetxr-26/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="kxsenatetxr-26" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If John Cornyn wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class II Texas Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →