Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
3%-1.2pp
Resolution window has effectively closed — no suit filed by May 15, 2026, and market sits at 4% with thin volume.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 4.2% | 95.8% | $3.1k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<PMEmbed slug="kxsuepowell-26" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If Donald Trump (or his administration) sues Jerome Powell before May 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 1 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →