Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
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Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 2.1% | 98.0% | $0 | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxtaiwanlvl4/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>react
<PMEmbed slug="kxtaiwanlvl4" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 0 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →