Prediction.Markets

Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue?

Market consensus1%
-0.0pp 24h change
AI Oracle avg 2% +0.6pp
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Resolves in 2mo · Total volume $2.8k · 0 participants · 1 venues tracked

Probability history

Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle

Frontier model forecasts

Refreshed daily · About the Oracle →
GPT-5
OpenAI
1%-0.1pp

No federal program exists; with 2 days left, a Source Agency report is essentially impossible.

track record →
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
2%+0.9pp

Resolution requires reporting before Jun 1, 2026 — 2 days away with no such program announced or executed.

track record →
Grok 4
xAI
2%+0.9pp

No program exists, zero media coverage, and <72 hours remain before cutoff.

track record →

Cross-venue prices

VenueYesNo24h VolumeLiquidityTrade →
Kalshi
1.1%99.0%$2.8k$0open

Movement

No significant movements yet.

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politics·resolves in 2mo
-0.0pp

Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue?

Market1%
AI Oracle2%
$2.8k 24h vol
html
<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxtariffchecks-26/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>
react
<PMEmbed slug="kxtariffchecks-26" variant="card" />

Resolution criteria

If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →