Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
Grok 4
xAI
9%-55.5pp
May 15 cutoff passed with zero credible reports of any Trump trip to China.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
3%-61.5pp
Resolution deadline (May 15, 2026) has passed with no record of Trump visiting China; market should resolve NO.
Cross-venue prices
Movement
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<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxtrumpchina-26/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>react
<PMEmbed slug="kxtrumpchina-26" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If Donald Trump has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of China before May 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 2 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →