Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
Grok 4
xAI
1%+0.0pp
Zero signals, leaks, or prep for a presidential visit to Iran by deadline.
GPT-5
OpenAI
1%+0.0pp
I see zero credible travel reports and the window is closed—this did not occur.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
1%+0.0pp
Resolution day with no trip having occurred; no US president has visited Iran since 1979.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 0.8% | 99.3% | $2.9k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<iframe src="https://prediction.markets/e/kxtrumpiran/embed?variant=card" width="100%" height="280" frameborder="0"></iframe>react
<PMEmbed slug="kxtrumpiran" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If Donald Trump has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Iran before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →