Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
GPT-5
OpenAI
2%-1.1pp
Very short window; death base-rate ~1% over ~59 days; other exits implausible.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
2%-1.1pp
No new signal; base rate for mid-term exit in <2 months remains very low; holding near market.
Grok 4
xAI
5%+1.9pp
80yo mortality actuarial risk over ~8 weeks still higher than crowd's anchored 3%.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 3.1% | 96.9% | $253 | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<PMEmbed slug="kxtrumpout27-27" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If Donald Trump leaves office before August 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 3 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →