Probability history
Market consensus · AI Oracle overlay
AI Oracle
Frontier model forecasts
Grok 4
xAI
67%+48.5pp
Trump's tight UFC ties and Dana White friendship outweigh presidential logistics far more than the market prices.
Claude Opus 4.7
Anthropic
22%+3.5pp
Trump attends UFC events with moderate frequency; base rate ~20-25% for any given numbered card.
Cross-venue prices
| Venue | Yes | No | 24h Volume | Liquidity | Trade → |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kalshi | 18.5% | 81.5% | $7.1k | $0 | open |
Movement
No significant movements yet.
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<PMEmbed slug="kxtrumpufc-26jul" variant="card" />Resolution criteria
If Donald Trump attends UFC 329, then the market resolves to Yes.
How is this page computed?
Prediction.Markets computes consensus by volume-weighted aggregation across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Outlier venues are flagged when their price deviates more than 2σ from the weighted mean. AI Oracle entries are independently sampled from 2 frontier models on a daily cadence. Full methodology →